11:00
Cambridge University
May 6
Jesus College
Geopolitics shifted dramatically with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which had started in 2014, now drew in the United States, most of Western Europe, and their allies around the world. Meantime, Russia strengthened its ties with China, North Korea, Iran, and others in Asia and the Global South. There was a resultant split in the UN Security Council and a deepening global division along the lines of prior conflicts in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The belief that large scale warfare between developed states had been consigned to history vanished with the return of trench and tank warfare reminiscent of the First World War. This has combined with the newer technologies of drones, cyber, and artificial intelligence. The nature of war remains the same – one community tries to force its will on another which resists with reciprocal military force – but the character of war is changing dramatically. The recent war between Israel/USA and Iran has further dramatically altered the picture, with the marginalizing of the United Nations and the apparent dissolution of the rules-based international order. The character of peacemaking is also being forced to adapt to this new situation and a changed zeitgeist in which leaders are less often those who seek to resolve conflicts than those who conduct them. Lord Alderdice will bring his experience of politics, parliament and peacebuilding to an analysis of the problem and some ideas of what to do about it.